A 100-point backdrop score across growth, policy, earnings, liquidity, risk and technicals.
| Category | Value | Score | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | 12 / 20 | ||
| └ GDP growth (ann.) | 1.5 | 3 / 5 | |
| └ Core CPI YoY | — | null / 5 | |
| └ Unemployment | 4.1 | 5 / 5 | |
| └ PMI (mfg+svc avg) | 54.9 | 4 / 5 | |
| Monetary policy | 6 / 25 | ||
| └ Real rate (FFR − core CPI) | — | null / 8 | neutral zone 0–1.5% |
| └ Policy stance & guidance | model judgment | 3 / 10 | model judgment |
| └ Communication vs market | model judgment | 3 / 7 | model judgment |
| Earnings | 16 / 20 | ||
| └ EPS growth YoY % | 50.4 | 5 / 5 | |
| └ Forward P/E | 20 | 4 / 8 | 10-yr avg ≈ 17–18 |
| └ Earnings quality | model judgment | 4 / 4 | model judgment |
| └ EPS beat rate % | 86 | 3 / 3 | |
| Liquidity | 8 / 10 | ||
| └ IG credit spread OAS % | 0.81 | 4 / 4 | |
| └ M2 YoY % | 2.11 | 2 / 3 | overheating also penalised |
| └ Financial conditions | — | 2 / 3 | proxied by spreads + M2 |
| Policy & geopolitics | 3 / 15 | ||
| └ Domestic policy risk | model judgment | 1.5 / 7.5 | model judgment |
| └ Geopolitical risk | model judgment | 1.5 / 7.5 | model judgment |
| Sentiment & technicals | 8.5 / 10 | ||
| └ VIX regime | 15.85 | 3 / 4 | low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional |
| └ Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ) | 2 | 3 / 3 | the only trend state that passed FDR |
| └ Flows / rotation / volume | model judgment | 2.5 / 3 | volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction |
Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.
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Research output, not investment advice.