✅Scorecard 2026-09-24

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $734.6 · range $null–$null	Open $735.29 · High $742.66 · Low $734.62 · Close $741.10 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.95%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band—

Expected high touched—

Expected low touched—

Brier0.188 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.89% Naive error 0.95%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18 · 2026-09-17 · 2026-09-16 · 2026-09-15 · 2026-09-14 · 2026-09-11

Research output, not investment advice.