✅Scorecard 2026-09-30

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $740.7 · range $736.5–$744.5	Open $740.19 · High $745.10 · Low $739.46 · Close $739.77 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.11%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.76% vs 0.66–1.83%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.12% Naive error 0.11%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18 · 2026-09-17 · 2026-09-16 · 2026-09-15 · 2026-09-14 · 2026-09-11

Research output, not investment advice.