✅Scorecard 2026-08-18

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $721.2 · range $716.6–$724.7	Open $720.21 · High $722.13 · Low $715.92 · Close $717.51 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.46%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.85% vs 0.68–1.89%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.322 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.52% Naive error 0.46%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

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Research output, not investment advice.