✅Scorecard 2026-09-07

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $719.4 · range $715.7–$722.8	Open $719.35 · High $721.86 · Low $716.56 · Close $718.96 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.05%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.74% vs 0.60–1.67%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.07% Naive error 0.05%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

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Research output, not investment advice.